The problem
Vessels do not always remain continuously visible through AIS. A ship may stop transmitting its AIS signal because of a technical issue, signal disruption, or, in some cases, deliberate attempts to conceal its activities. When this happens, a critical question arises: where is the vessel likely to go after it disappears from AIS?
Our Future Trajectory solution is designed to answer exactly that. By analyzing the vessel's historical movement patterns — previous voyages, speed, heading, routes, and behavioral patterns — our algorithms can estimate the vessel's most likely trajectory after its AIS signal is lost. The prediction can be generated across configurable future time intervals T, providing an estimated path even when no new AIS data is available.
But trajectory prediction is only part of the problem.
What can we predict?
Our solution answers three key questions:
1. Where is the vessel likely to go?
Estimate the vessel's most probable future trajectory from the last known AIS position over defined time intervals.
2. When is it likely to arrive?
Estimate the vessel's expected ETA based on its predicted trajectory, historical travel times, speed patterns, and destination behavior.
3. Which ports is it likely to visit?
Predict the most likely ports of call along the vessel's potential route, helping identify where the vessel may have stopped or ultimately arrived while its AIS signal was unavailable.
One solution, three predictions
The answer is yes — these three capabilities can be brought together in a single predictive system. We have developed sophisticated trajectory-prediction algorithms that combine historical vessel behavior with route and port patterns to provide a unified view of a vessel's likely movements after AIS transmission is interrupted.
The result is a single product that can help users move beyond simply asking "Where did the vessel disappear?" to answering the more important questions: